Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 2.352219 2.495340 2.651510 2.836374 3.051736 3.298042 3.606240
2025-05-18 2.151809 2.326060 2.524645 2.772116 3.079143 3.458147 3.981020
2025-05-25 2.037366 2.232698 2.462624 2.760863 3.150587 3.665303 4.446166
2025-06-01 1.945782 2.154343 2.405972 2.742868 3.202437 3.846597 4.917499
2025-06-08 1.868665 2.085701 2.352743 2.719664 3.238812 4.006359 5.401875
2025-06-15 1.824376 2.053268 2.340723 2.746820 3.345218 4.287147 6.210058
2025-06-22 1.740394 1.965229 2.249917 2.656698 3.266412 4.252865 6.380582
2025-06-29 1.697011 1.926549 2.221117 2.650017 3.311743 4.435218 7.124389
2025-07-06 1.639018 1.865989 2.159348 2.590844 3.267253 4.447658 7.460686
2025-07-13 1.621232 1.856842 2.166028 2.630905 3.385814 4.789673 9.018486
2025-07-20 1.616644 1.864468 2.195506 2.706487 3.573387 5.327563 12.252668
2025-07-27 1.589570 1.840477 2.179058 2.709768 3.634260 5.609562 15.340268
2025-08-03 1.561507 1.815238 2.161210 2.712224 3.699507 5.941997 21.244177
2025-08-10 1.517199 1.766124 2.106747 2.652222 3.639260 5.931615 24.132271
2025-08-17 1.489856 1.739393 2.083486 2.641176 3.672659 6.193935 38.506612
2025-08-24 1.462740 1.711981 2.057919 2.624413 3.692465 6.428401 91.852395
2025-08-31 1.436078 1.684307 2.030755 2.603114 3.700385 6.633300 NaN
2025-09-07 1.423329 1.675543 2.031026 2.627684 3.807066 7.231037 NaN
2025-09-14 1.383549 1.627612 1.970987 2.545638 3.675054 6.902143 NaN
2025-09-21 1.365183 1.609529 1.955314 2.539522 3.709364 7.233851 NaN
2025-09-28 1.335468 1.574653 1.913227 2.485502 3.632447 7.096727 NaN
2025-10-05 1.329891 1.573896 1.922734 2.522073 3.763483 7.910370 NaN
2025-10-12 1.332097 1.584217 1.949432 2.590919 3.982426 9.435903 NaN